The Caps and The Cup

Everyone loves to watch the Capitals. Why wouldn't they? They play a fast-paced, high-scoring, reckless style of game that is pure entertainment on ice. And while the popularity of the Washington Capitals soars to the highest of heights, both inside and outside of the Nation's Capital, are they actually good eanough to finally be a Cup Champion?

Dave Thorson once said, "Offense sells tickets, defense wins championships." and recent history seems to be pretty consistent with this old adage. Of the past ten Cup-winners, four of them have had the best GAA in the playoffs and eight of them were in the top three. The two outside the top 3 were:

- Last year's Penguins, who were fifth after a high-scoring seven-game shootout with said Washington Capitals, giving up over 3 goal/game in that classic series. Aside from that series, the Penuins were fairly stingy giving up less than two and a half goals per game, good for about 4th.

- The 2002 Red Wings who were also fifth in GAA, but boasted possibly the most feared offensive line-up of all time with names like Hull, Yzerman, Robitaille, Fedorov, Shanahan and Larionov. Despite having four teams statistically ahead of them in defense, the Wings barely gave up 2 goals per game during the playoffs -- certainly nothing to be embarrassed about.

Right now, the Capitals are 19th in the NHL in goals against per game giving up 2.81 each outing. That's half a goal more than Chicago, the best in the League. Of all the impressive stats Bruce Boudreau's team has earnt, this is not one of them. Not since the high-flying Pens of 1992 has a team given up more than 2.80 goals/game in the playoffs and won the Stanley Cup.

The good news is that this glaring defensive statistic for Washington is only a regular season stat. And despite this they still sit atop the entire NHL. But is this kind of defensively-irresponsible hockey good enough to win in the postseason?

As mentioned, history says no.

There's no doubt about it, the Caps have an amazingly talented offense. One that can, and has been relied on many times to win a game. But during the course of a seven-game series, a well-coached team has the ability to familiarize themselves with their opponent and find weaknesses to exploit.

All the confidence in the world can be obliterated in just a few short games, when one or two players begin to doubt themselves. And that's where the problem lies. With the help of an astute coach and an excellent goaltender, it's not only feasible, but likely, that a team could gain and maintain the upper-hand when it comes to playoff hockey.

If a team were to completely stymie the rhythm of a Nicklas Backstrom and Alexander Semin, can Ovechkin really do it all alone? What if, God-forbid, AO himself were the lose his, seemingly endless supply of mojo? It's difficult to see how the Capitals could possibly get out of the holes they consistently create for themselves with their aggressive style if these-albeit extremely potent-threats are nullified.

Even with their amazing recent streak and their current place in the standings, the Capitals have shown times when they are simply not the best team on the ice. Sometimes they still find a way to win those games, but over seven-games those injustices usually find a way of balancing between the teams.

The way they play is the reason I, along with many others, would love to see them succeed, but the way they play is also the reason they probably won't. In the second-season, familiarity is the worst enemy of a team that plays one-dimensionally and that is probably the most appropriate way to describe Washington right now.

Ovechkin, Semin, Backstrom and Green are just a few of the stars in D.C. that are undeniably dangerous. But against a suffocating, oppressively-disciplined defense, you cannot expect 4+ goals from them every night and if they continue to allow goals against to flow like a Sharks' fans tears in April, that's what they'll need.

If coach Bourdreau can't find a way to instill a defensive conscience into his players, they will find themselves once again, playing golf after one or two playoff rounds.

The Mystery of Detroit

If last night's shootout loss to St. Louis demonstrated anything to the hockey world, it's that the Red Wings clearly do not understand the urgency of the situation they are in. Right now they sit ninth in the Western Conference amidst a ferocious fight between seven teams for two playoff births. Apparently this information was not relayed to Detroit, who played a lethargic and apathetic game for the better part of fifty, of what at times seemed to be, endless minutes.

Then, inexplicably, the Wings wanted to play.

Attempting to gain a firm, or for that matter, tenuous comprehension of this enigmatic squad would most likely prove to be a frivolous task. An empathetic person could certainly see why the Wings of past years have displayed occasional diffidence when a playoff spot is all but locked up in December. It's a long season and most of the time, the playoffs are just too far away. These days however, the eternal wait for the playoffs could use a slight extension.

With each suffered loss, the importance of each game increases. This truth, undeniable, despite the contradictory words spoken by Detroit's on-ice actions. Perhaps force of habit is behind their listless efforts, perhaps it's fatigue, or maybe after a Cup and a heart-breaking Cup Final-loss, it's a loss of passion, but confidence should not be the cause of their ailing ways.

Being down 3-1 and facing another disappointment with six minutes to play, Detroit dominated until the score was tied. The goals scored weren't particularly demonstrative of the usual Red Wing-style, and some might say luck got them to overtime with some fortunate bounces. But the fact is, for the first time in that game, Detroit put sustained pressure on the St. Louis defense and for all intents and purposes, willed the puck over the line. Twice.

It's amazing what talent like that can do in five minutes when they slip out of first-gear. To the average spectator, it would seem theoretically logical and reasonable, to suggest that if coach Mike Babcock could negotiate even forty minutes of urgent intensity from his players, wins would instantaneously become less elusive. Apparently, the mysterious throttle on this juggernaught is not as easy to operate as it once was.

Maybe we're all being fooled and Detroit will end up with the fourth seed through some sudden spring to action. This is still actually a plausible scenario given the flashes of excellence we have seen from time to time. But unless those flashes become a steady stream, it won't happen.

Even then, nothing can be certain. Talent is great, but talent alone is not the reason they became the Stanley Cup Champions in 2008. The hardest working team in the National Hockey League, was the Detroit Red Wings. The hunger and the work-ethic of that time barely even felt like a memory but more a dream about a past incarnation when you watched them play last night.

Upon the return of Holmstrom and Kronwall, they will be devoid of excuses. It has been a tough year for the mighty Wings, one that no-one would envy. The good news for the Detroit faithful is, they do have the power. They control their destiny and what's more, they can win games when they really want to.

So. Do they really want to?

Could Kovy Mean More Than a Cup?

Well, the torrid whirlwind of speculation surrounding the city the biggest name on the trading-block would be calling home this weekend (yes, yes, I was definitely one of the hopeless speculators) is over. Ilya Kovalchuk is a New Jersey Devil.

All week we'd heard rumors of him heading to Philadelphia, Calgary, New York, Los Angeles, Boston, Chicago and even Washington but Lou Lamoriello was the one able to best synergise with the Atlanta GM, Don Waddell.

Reports say the sought-after star was offered contracts of $70m/7yrs to $101m/12yrs but declined. Maybe Kovalchuk thinks he can get more money, maybe he just feels like a change of scenery or maybe he wants a Cup. The events that unfold over the off-season will surely provide the answers to those questions, but what about now?

You wouldn't win much for guessing that most Devils fans are quite pleased with the transaction -- and why wouldn't they be? NJ was a contender before the deal. Now with one of the best attackers in the game, imagine the possibilities. Zajac, Parise and Kovalchuk? That could be fun!

Whichever way Kovalchuk's presence is integrated in the New Jersey roster, the impact will be quite large. I use the words "quite large" in the same way Ken Hitchcock's jock-strap says its job "Isn't great.".

But for the slightest moment, let's ignore the Devils newly attained dangerousness.

For the first. time. ever. I actually thought to myself, "I'm gonna hafta watch a bit more of the Devils." and as crazy as it sounds, I'll bet I'm not alone with this sentiment.

For the longest time, New Jersey has been home to the most boring product in the NHL. Personally, I always found it difficult to criticise because at the end of the day, it worked. But through all the years of sustained success, fans in Garden State never reached the excitement-levels you see in Washington or Pittsburgh right now.

Kovy won't change the defense-first style of Lamoriello's regime, but the fact is New Jersey has never seen a player of Kovalchuk's talent in its relatively short history. It could be said that Kovalchuk alone could put more fans in the seats this playoff season, than winning the Cup without him might have.

A new era could be dawning in NJ if Lou is able to work his magic and keep Ilya beyond 2009/10. The rare talent of a player like Kovalchuk, coupled with the enduring inherent success the team seems to eternally possess, could be the panacea for indifference the town has always shown for their hockey team.