Well, the torrid whirlwind of speculation surrounding the city the biggest name on the trading-block would be calling home this weekend (yes, yes, I was definitely one of the hopeless speculators) is over. Ilya Kovalchuk is a New Jersey Devil.
All week we'd heard rumors of him heading to Philadelphia, Calgary, New York, Los Angeles, Boston, Chicago and even Washington but Lou Lamoriello was the one able to best synergise with the Atlanta GM, Don Waddell.
Reports say the sought-after star was offered contracts of $70m/7yrs to $101m/12yrs but declined. Maybe Kovalchuk thinks he can get more money, maybe he just feels like a change of scenery or maybe he wants a Cup. The events that unfold over the off-season will surely provide the answers to those questions, but what about now?
You wouldn't win much for guessing that most Devils fans are quite pleased with the transaction -- and why wouldn't they be? NJ was a contender before the deal. Now with one of the best attackers in the game, imagine the possibilities. Zajac, Parise and Kovalchuk? That could be fun!
Whichever way Kovalchuk's presence is integrated in the New Jersey roster, the impact will be quite large. I use the words "quite large" in the same way Ken Hitchcock's jock-strap says its job "Isn't great.".
But for the slightest moment, let's ignore the Devils newly attained dangerousness.
For the first. time. ever. I actually thought to myself, "I'm gonna hafta watch a bit more of the Devils." and as crazy as it sounds, I'll bet I'm not alone with this sentiment.
For the longest time, New Jersey has been home to the most boring product in the NHL. Personally, I always found it difficult to criticise because at the end of the day, it worked. But through all the years of sustained success, fans in Garden State never reached the excitement-levels you see in Washington or Pittsburgh right now.
Kovy won't change the defense-first style of Lamoriello's regime, but the fact is New Jersey has never seen a player of Kovalchuk's talent in its relatively short history. It could be said that Kovalchuk alone could put more fans in the seats this playoff season, than winning the Cup without him might have.
A new era could be dawning in NJ if Lou is able to work his magic and keep Ilya beyond 2009/10. The rare talent of a player like Kovalchuk, coupled with the enduring inherent success the team seems to eternally possess, could be the panacea for indifference the town has always shown for their hockey team.
Showing posts with label Ilya Kovalchuk. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ilya Kovalchuk. Show all posts
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
The Value of Ilya
The "new" NHL is a heartless, unwaivering beast.Love him or hate him (let's face it, we all hate him), Gary Bettman achieved exactly what he intended to, and cultivated an ultra-competitive environment for NHL managers. Gone are the days of the big boys going out with the sole aim of signing the biggest free agents every off-season or carelessly trading away their draft-picks on deadline day with the optimistic hope that those good young players can just be acquired in 10 years time if need be. No, the post-lockout NHL GM must be a bold negotiator, brave risk-taker, astute talent scout and expert capologist.
So how realistic is Ilya Kovalchuk's agent, Jay Grossman, in the expectation that he can fetch his client the maximum allowed NHL contract?
There's no denying Kovalchuk's talent. He's one of the most dangerous forwards in the league and would make a valued contribution to any NHL team. But league maximum, which granted will probably decline moderately next season, is roughly $11.7m. If Kovy were to garner a contract like that, Jay Grossman could well be considered Danny Ocean of sports agents because he'd have pulled off the heist of the century and here's why:
Right now Grossman's client is inked in with a moderate cap hit of $6.4m/year. To put that into perspective, Red Wings' 2009 Hart-finallist and Selke-winner, Pavel Datsyuk accounts for $6.7m of Detroit's annual cap hit. While 4 years older than Kovalchuk at 30, Datsyuk despite his decline his drop in statistics this season, would almost unanimously be considered a bigger asset to any NHL club. At this stage in their careers, their offensive output is fairly similar but Datsyuk's defensive-prowess, as underscored by his two Selke trophies, is leaps and bounds ahead of the sluggish backchecker in Kovalchuk.
To place further perspective on the outrageousness that is Grossman's demands, current two-time reigning league MVP, and the largest cap hit in the NHL, Alex Ovechkin makes about $2m less than the current maximum.
There's no denying Kovalchuk's talent. He's one of the most dangerous forwards in the league and would make a valued contribution to any NHL team. But league maximum, which granted will probably decline moderately next season, is roughly $11.7m. If Kovy were to garner a contract like that, Jay Grossman could well be considered Danny Ocean of sports agents because he'd have pulled off the heist of the century and here's why:
Right now Grossman's client is inked in with a moderate cap hit of $6.4m/year. To put that into perspective, Red Wings' 2009 Hart-finallist and Selke-winner, Pavel Datsyuk accounts for $6.7m of Detroit's annual cap hit. While 4 years older than Kovalchuk at 30, Datsyuk despite his decline his drop in statistics this season, would almost unanimously be considered a bigger asset to any NHL club. At this stage in their careers, their offensive output is fairly similar but Datsyuk's defensive-prowess, as underscored by his two Selke trophies, is leaps and bounds ahead of the sluggish backchecker in Kovalchuk.
To place further perspective on the outrageousness that is Grossman's demands, current two-time reigning league MVP, and the largest cap hit in the NHL, Alex Ovechkin makes about $2m less than the current maximum.
Does Grossman, or anyone at all actually believe Kovalchuk could be more valuable to his team than Ovechkin?
The biggest problem Thrashers' GM Don Waddell has, is the KHL. A place where the aforementioned comparisons need not be relevant and the monetary restrictions don't exist. Kovalchuk and his agent are well aware this enormous pricetag will be paid in full, tax-free no less, across the pond in Europe. The fact of the matter is, any of these Eastern European stars can cash-in bigger with a move to the KHL, but for most the lure of the
Stanley Cup keeps them in North America. However, the passion for the quest for the world's oldest trophy is not a universal one as evidenced most recently by Jiri Hudler.
So Kovalchuk and not his agent needs to make a decision. A choice between a realistic paycheque and a shot at Lord Stanley or the giant payday over in Europe. Any contending NHL team looking to go all the way would certainly be willing to offer a fair value salary for his services of anywhere between $6.5m to $8.5m (depending on the contract length), but fair value may not be enough.
The biggest problem Thrashers' GM Don Waddell has, is the KHL. A place where the aforementioned comparisons need not be relevant and the monetary restrictions don't exist. Kovalchuk and his agent are well aware this enormous pricetag will be paid in full, tax-free no less, across the pond in Europe. The fact of the matter is, any of these Eastern European stars can cash-in bigger with a move to the KHL, but for most the lure of the
Stanley Cup keeps them in North America. However, the passion for the quest for the world's oldest trophy is not a universal one as evidenced most recently by Jiri Hudler.So Kovalchuk and not his agent needs to make a decision. A choice between a realistic paycheque and a shot at Lord Stanley or the giant payday over in Europe. Any contending NHL team looking to go all the way would certainly be willing to offer a fair value salary for his services of anywhere between $6.5m to $8.5m (depending on the contract length), but fair value may not be enough.
Saturday, January 30, 2010
The Kovalchuk Factor
It's no secret that it's highly unlikely Thrashers' star forward Ilya Kovalchuk, won't be dealt some time between now and March 3, in a trade that will surely be the blockbuster deal of the season. The services of the 2001 #1 overall draft pick will be highly sought-after and with good cause. At this point in the season he has managed 31 goals and 57 points with the 6th best pts/gm average in the league. When you consider the quality of the linemates the 5 men ahead of him (Ovechkin, Daniel & Henrik Sedin, Crosby and Thornton) have compared to Ilya Kovalchuk's, it's pretty clear this is a player every team in need of scoring touch would like to have. He's just one of those unique forwards that makes his linemates better.
Speculation from one of my favourite hockey reporters, Bob McKenzie suggests Calgary and Chicago are two teams likely to pursue a deal for the talented winger. The benefits the Flames might see from Kovie's services are obvious.
Expectations were high in Southern Alberta prior to the commencement of their 2009/10 campaign, and as we near the Olympic break it's safe to say those expectations have not been met. Shockingly, Calgary sits outside the playoffs (albeit by a single point) in 9th in the highly competitive Western conference. GM Darryl Sutter may be feeling deja vu because the apparent panacea for Calgary's ailment is once against scoring. Last year Sutter hoped Olli Jokinen would be the answer but the impact of the tricky ex-Coyote was fairly underwhelming.
If somehow, 12 months later the Flames GM was able to synergise with Don Waddell and get Kovalchuk in a Flames' uniform, the same disappointment would not be seen. Calgary could potentially ice one of the most dangerous lines in hockey. Daymong Langkow and Olli Jokinen might get light-headed at the thought of centering Iginla and Kovalchuk, as would any centre in the NHL. But of course, the negative affects of such a monumental trade need to be equally assessed.
Don Waddell is certainly not going to give away his franchise player for nothing. One would expect the Thrashers' GM to be in search of at least one key player along with a mixture of high draft-picks and prospects. The speculation about Dion Phaneuf's possible movement before the deadline certainly makes sense and in this scenario it makes sense for both parties.
The Chicago Blackhawks on the other hand are not in need of scoring. Boasting arguably the youngest and deepest core of forwards in the league with the likes of Toews, Kane, Hossa, Versteeg and Sharp to compliment the [statistically] stingiest defense touring the continent, this trade doesn't make as much sense to me.
While there's no doubt the addition of Kovalchuk would certainly make them an even scarier opponent to deal with, it seems an unnecessary risk for Stan Bowman to take. We've all heard the saying 'If it ain't broke, don't fix it', and with this in mind any sort of major deal does seem somewhat risky. Joel Quenneville's team has displayed that they are the most balanced and consistent team thusfar in the season. While they can't claim to have the "score-at-will" ability of the Washington Capitals or San Jose Sharks, a consistent, discipled defense is perhaps the most valuable virtue a hockey team could hope to possess come playoff time.
Further to the risk of altering an obviously strong team chemistry, does it seem necessary to trade away young talent and/or draft picks for this risk? It should also be mentioned, that Bowman will need to off-load salary for Kovy's $6.4m annual cap hit and I'm guessing the Thrashers aren't interested in Brian Campbell.
Trades like this are best suited for teams that are 'on the bubble' so to speak, and require that added injection to get them from competitive to contending. Some of those teams could include Vancouver, Philadelphia, Colorado and the aforementioned Calgary. In my estimation, Chicago will not and should not be in that mix.
Speculation from one of my favourite hockey reporters, Bob McKenzie suggests Calgary and Chicago are two teams likely to pursue a deal for the talented winger. The benefits the Flames might see from Kovie's services are obvious.
Expectations were high in Southern Alberta prior to the commencement of their 2009/10 campaign, and as we near the Olympic break it's safe to say those expectations have not been met. Shockingly, Calgary sits outside the playoffs (albeit by a single point) in 9th in the highly competitive Western conference. GM Darryl Sutter may be feeling deja vu because the apparent panacea for Calgary's ailment is once against scoring. Last year Sutter hoped Olli Jokinen would be the answer but the impact of the tricky ex-Coyote was fairly underwhelming.
If somehow, 12 months later the Flames GM was able to synergise with Don Waddell and get Kovalchuk in a Flames' uniform, the same disappointment would not be seen. Calgary could potentially ice one of the most dangerous lines in hockey. Daymong Langkow and Olli Jokinen might get light-headed at the thought of centering Iginla and Kovalchuk, as would any centre in the NHL. But of course, the negative affects of such a monumental trade need to be equally assessed.
Don Waddell is certainly not going to give away his franchise player for nothing. One would expect the Thrashers' GM to be in search of at least one key player along with a mixture of high draft-picks and prospects. The speculation about Dion Phaneuf's possible movement before the deadline certainly makes sense and in this scenario it makes sense for both parties.
The Chicago Blackhawks on the other hand are not in need of scoring. Boasting arguably the youngest and deepest core of forwards in the league with the likes of Toews, Kane, Hossa, Versteeg and Sharp to compliment the [statistically] stingiest defense touring the continent, this trade doesn't make as much sense to me.
While there's no doubt the addition of Kovalchuk would certainly make them an even scarier opponent to deal with, it seems an unnecessary risk for Stan Bowman to take. We've all heard the saying 'If it ain't broke, don't fix it', and with this in mind any sort of major deal does seem somewhat risky. Joel Quenneville's team has displayed that they are the most balanced and consistent team thusfar in the season. While they can't claim to have the "score-at-will" ability of the Washington Capitals or San Jose Sharks, a consistent, discipled defense is perhaps the most valuable virtue a hockey team could hope to possess come playoff time.
Further to the risk of altering an obviously strong team chemistry, does it seem necessary to trade away young talent and/or draft picks for this risk? It should also be mentioned, that Bowman will need to off-load salary for Kovy's $6.4m annual cap hit and I'm guessing the Thrashers aren't interested in Brian Campbell.
Trades like this are best suited for teams that are 'on the bubble' so to speak, and require that added injection to get them from competitive to contending. Some of those teams could include Vancouver, Philadelphia, Colorado and the aforementioned Calgary. In my estimation, Chicago will not and should not be in that mix.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
