The Caps and The Cup

Everyone loves to watch the Capitals. Why wouldn't they? They play a fast-paced, high-scoring, reckless style of game that is pure entertainment on ice. And while the popularity of the Washington Capitals soars to the highest of heights, both inside and outside of the Nation's Capital, are they actually good eanough to finally be a Cup Champion?

Dave Thorson once said, "Offense sells tickets, defense wins championships." and recent history seems to be pretty consistent with this old adage. Of the past ten Cup-winners, four of them have had the best GAA in the playoffs and eight of them were in the top three. The two outside the top 3 were:

- Last year's Penguins, who were fifth after a high-scoring seven-game shootout with said Washington Capitals, giving up over 3 goal/game in that classic series. Aside from that series, the Penuins were fairly stingy giving up less than two and a half goals per game, good for about 4th.

- The 2002 Red Wings who were also fifth in GAA, but boasted possibly the most feared offensive line-up of all time with names like Hull, Yzerman, Robitaille, Fedorov, Shanahan and Larionov. Despite having four teams statistically ahead of them in defense, the Wings barely gave up 2 goals per game during the playoffs -- certainly nothing to be embarrassed about.

Right now, the Capitals are 19th in the NHL in goals against per game giving up 2.81 each outing. That's half a goal more than Chicago, the best in the League. Of all the impressive stats Bruce Boudreau's team has earnt, this is not one of them. Not since the high-flying Pens of 1992 has a team given up more than 2.80 goals/game in the playoffs and won the Stanley Cup.

The good news is that this glaring defensive statistic for Washington is only a regular season stat. And despite this they still sit atop the entire NHL. But is this kind of defensively-irresponsible hockey good enough to win in the postseason?

As mentioned, history says no.

There's no doubt about it, the Caps have an amazingly talented offense. One that can, and has been relied on many times to win a game. But during the course of a seven-game series, a well-coached team has the ability to familiarize themselves with their opponent and find weaknesses to exploit.

All the confidence in the world can be obliterated in just a few short games, when one or two players begin to doubt themselves. And that's where the problem lies. With the help of an astute coach and an excellent goaltender, it's not only feasible, but likely, that a team could gain and maintain the upper-hand when it comes to playoff hockey.

If a team were to completely stymie the rhythm of a Nicklas Backstrom and Alexander Semin, can Ovechkin really do it all alone? What if, God-forbid, AO himself were the lose his, seemingly endless supply of mojo? It's difficult to see how the Capitals could possibly get out of the holes they consistently create for themselves with their aggressive style if these-albeit extremely potent-threats are nullified.

Even with their amazing recent streak and their current place in the standings, the Capitals have shown times when they are simply not the best team on the ice. Sometimes they still find a way to win those games, but over seven-games those injustices usually find a way of balancing between the teams.

The way they play is the reason I, along with many others, would love to see them succeed, but the way they play is also the reason they probably won't. In the second-season, familiarity is the worst enemy of a team that plays one-dimensionally and that is probably the most appropriate way to describe Washington right now.

Ovechkin, Semin, Backstrom and Green are just a few of the stars in D.C. that are undeniably dangerous. But against a suffocating, oppressively-disciplined defense, you cannot expect 4+ goals from them every night and if they continue to allow goals against to flow like a Sharks' fans tears in April, that's what they'll need.

If coach Bourdreau can't find a way to instill a defensive conscience into his players, they will find themselves once again, playing golf after one or two playoff rounds.

Red Hot!

Thursday and Friday night saw the extension of two very impressive win streaks. One surprising, one not so much.

Two nights ago, another team that's been heating up of late, the Vancouver Canucks visited Scotiabank Place with the intent of ending a 10-game win-streak of the Sens. The 'Nucks had won 6 of their last 7 through the benefit of the hottest line in the league in January -- Alex Burrows and the Sedin Twins. Red-hot rookie netminder, Brian Elliot was equal to the potency of the dominant line as he extended his own personal win-streak to 9 games as the Senators never really looked like losing en route to a 3-1 decision extending their streak to 11.

24 hours later, in a somewhat contrasting affair, the Capitals pushed their league-leading, frachise-record streak to 13 straight wins, this time with a win over the Kovy-less Atlanta Thrashers 5-2.

The significance of the extension of these two streaks is the potential record-setting "Something's Gotta Give" match-up between these two next Thursday if both sides can remain in the win column until then. If this indeed does happen, the Senators will place their 13-game streak up against the 15-game mark of the Caps. Two teams playing each with a combined 28-game winning streak will be an NHL record.

Before that, the Caps must survive "Ovechkin vs. Crosby II" on Sunday in Washington and be successful in a visit to Montreal while Ottawa visits the disappointing Leafs tonight and plays host to Calgary on Tuesday.

The chances of this big meeting on Thursday night having the significance of a record-breaking streak vs. streak are still somewhat low. Four games need to be won:

• Tonight 2/6 - Ottawa @ Toronto: The Leafs will be looking to get a win in honor of the tragic loss of Brendan Burke - son of Leafs' GM, Brian - who died last night in a horrible car accident.
• Sunday 2/7 - Pittsburgh @ Washington: The Caps are at home and won the last meeting in Pittsburgh pretty handily, but beating the reigning Champs is never a simple task. NB: Don't anticipate seeing anything else covered on NHL.com but this game.
  
• Tuesday 2/9 - Calgary @ Ottawa: Call it addition by subtraction or just coincidence, but the Flames seem to have responded very well to the recent changes to the club -- no easy game for the Senators.
• Wednesday 2/10 - Washington @ Montreal: Of all four games, this is probably the most winnable for the streaking team. Montreal are not to be underestimated though, and if Halak is in goal and on his game, the Caps will find it very difficult to find the net 6 or 7 times as they seem to so frequently do.

So something big could be waiting right around the corner next Thursday. Again, there is still a very good chance both these streaks will no longer be intact, but even if so, it should prove to be a very interesting game between the two hottest teams going around. Incidentally, I might put myself on the line with the early prediction -- winner: the fans!

Okay yeah that was a huge copout and hideously clichéd... deal with it.

The Value of Ilya

The "new" NHL is a heartless, unwaivering beast.

Love him or hate him (let's face it, we all hate him), Gary Bettman achieved exactly what he intended to, and cultivated an ultra-competitive environment for NHL managers. Gone are the days of the big boys going out with the sole aim of signing the biggest free agents every off-season or carelessly trading away their draft-picks on deadline day with the optimistic hope that those good young players can just be acquired in 10 years time if need be. No, the post-lockout NHL GM must be a bold negotiator, brave risk-taker, astute talent scout and expert capologist.

So how realistic is Ilya Kovalchuk's agent, Jay Grossman, in the expectation that he can fetch his client the maximum allowed NHL contract?

There's no denying Kovalchuk's talent. He's one of the most dangerous forwards in the league and would make a valued contribution to any NHL team. But league maximum, which granted will probably decline moderately next season, is roughly $11.7m. If Kovy were to garner a contract like that, Jay Grossman could well be considered Danny Ocean of sports agents because he'd have pulled off the heist of the century and here's why:

Right now Grossman's client is inked in with a moderate cap hit of $6.4m/year. To put that into perspective, Red Wings' 2009 Hart-finallist and Selke-winner, Pavel Datsyuk accounts for $6.7m of Detroit's annual cap hit. While 4 years older than Kovalchuk at 30, Datsyuk despite his decline his drop in statistics this season, would almost unanimously be considered a bigger asset to any NHL club. At this stage in their careers, their offensive output is fairly similar but Datsyuk's defensive-prowess, as underscored by his two Selke trophies, is leaps and bounds ahead of the sluggish backchecker in Kovalchuk.

To place further perspective on the outrageousness that is Grossman's demands, current two-time reigning league MVP, and the largest cap hit in the NHL, Alex Ovechkin makes about $2m less than the current maximum.

Does Grossman, or anyone at all actually believe Kovalchuk could be more valuable to his team than Ovechkin?

The biggest problem Thrashers' GM Don Waddell has, is the KHL. A place where the aforementioned comparisons need not be relevant and the monetary restrictions don't exist. Kovalchuk and his agent are well aware this enormous pricetag will be paid in full, tax-free no less, across the pond in Europe. The fact of the matter is, any of these Eastern European stars can cash-in bigger with a move to the KHL, but for most the lure of the Stanley Cup keeps them in North America. However, the passion for the quest for the world's oldest trophy is not a universal one as evidenced most recently by Jiri Hudler.

So Kovalchuk and not his agent needs to make a decision. A choice between a realistic paycheque and a shot at Lord Stanley or the giant payday over in Europe. Any contending NHL team looking to go all the way would certainly be willing to offer a fair value salary for his services of anywhere between $6.5m to $8.5m (depending on the contract length), but fair value may not be enough.