Winter Olympics: Knockout Preview

With the round-robin group stage of the Olympic Men's Hockey Tournament in the books, a very interesting and unexpected picture has emerged. The standings after the group stage is as follows:

(1) United States:
Road to the Gold - Bye through first-round playing winner of (SUI/BLR) in quarter-finals followed by most likely CZE or FIN in semi-final.
(2) Sweden:
Road to the Gold - Bye through first-round playing winner of (SLV/NOR) in quarter-finals followed by most likely RUS or CAN in semi-final.
(3) Russian Federation:
Road to the Gold - Bye through first-round playing winner of (CAN/GER) in quarter-finals followed by most likely SWE in semi-final.
(4) Finland:
Road to the Gold - Bye through first-round playing winner of (CZE/LAT) in quarter-finals followed by most likely USA in semi-final.
(5) Czech Republic:
Road to the Gold - LAT in first-round, followed by FIN in quarter-finals and most likely USA in semi-final.
(6) Canada:
Road to the Gold - GER in first-round, followed by RUS in quarter-finals and most likely SWE in semi-final.
(7) Slovakia:
Road to the Gold - NOR in first-round, followed by SWE in quarter-finals and most likely RUS or CAN in semi-final.
(8) Switzerland:
Road to the Gold - BLR in first-round, followed by USA in quarter-finals and most likely FIN or CZE in semi-final.
(9) Belarus:
Road to the Gold - SUI in first-round, followed by USA in quarter-finals and most likely FIN or CZE in semi-final.
(10) Norway:
Road to the Gold - SLV in first-round, followed by SWE in quarter-finals and most likely RUS or CAN in semi-final.
(11) Germany:
Road to the Gold - CAN in first-round, followed by RUS in quarter-finals and most likely SWE in semi-final.
(12) Latvia:
Road to the Gold - CZE in first-round, followed by FIN in quarter-finals and most likely USA in semi-final.

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As I see it, there are only five real contendors for the Gold, any one of which can win on any given night (or day, as the case may be):

United States: After a seemingly slow start against the suffocating Swiss, the young upstart U.S. squad seemed to go from strength to strength with the lead of veteran defenseman, Brian Rafalski, who scored 4 goals and added an assist in the three games. After easily accounting for Norway 6-1, in their second clash, the stage was set for their biggest test, Team Canada. The Americans passed their first test with flying colours as they stormed past a frustrated Canadian squad 5-3, taking top seed after the group stage.

Sweden: Perhaps the most consistent team in the tourney thus far, Sweden looks serious about defending their Olympic crown. Having allowed a stingy 2 goals in their first three games, this will be a tough team for anyone to beat. Two more concerns for would-be opponent; Swedish goalie, Henrik Lundqvist, is still yet to allow a goal in his two starts and the dangerous tandem of Henrik Zetterberg and Peter Forsberg, while yet to score between them, look very sharp and due to trouble scorekeepers as well as goalies very soon.

Russia: The top "favorite" along with Canada, this team like it's short-betted counterpart has seen a few hiccups so far. With the exception of the opening game against the under-talented Latvian team, Russia has been far from dominant and even lost to Slovakia in a shootout. Defense and goaltending is still yet to be proven and may need more from the immensely talented offense to get the gold. The bad news for the Russians is, they'll need to go through Sweden and most likely Canada to do it.

Finland: The silver-medallists in Torino have one again proven to be a formidabble opponent so far, but as demonstrated in the final game of the group games, Sweden is still ahead of them when all is said and done. Tight defense and an extraordinarily effective powerplay mowed through the competition in.... but it all came undone against the Swedes. Their 6/12 PP was unable to convert on seven attempts including two 2-man advantages and were reminded of their distaste for their neighbours to the west. The Fins will need more from their offense to get on the podium and probably a miraculous effort from goalie, Miikka Kiprusoff, to go one better and snag Gold this time around.

Canada: Disappointing is probably somewhat of an understatement when used to describe Team Canada so far. The build up to these Olympic Games was colossal as the Canadians eagerly awaited the chance at redemption for the woeful outing in Torino where they finished seventh. The pressure was immense and so far, the Canadians seem to have responsed poorly with only one regulation win in three games with a loss to southern rivals, the U.S. Having said that, a team this talented cannot be ruled out of contention until they out of the tournament. If they do in fact, find their groove, it'll be a near impossible task to stop the Hockey Nation.

The great thing about our game and these tournaments, particularly the Olympics, is that any team can win if they play well enough. Of these five legitimate 'contendors', you could probably expect one of them to lose a game to a 'non-contendor' before the series is over.

The Winter Olympics really is a hockey-lovers dream and so far, the tourney has definitely delivered the drama only this game can bring. As the stakes rise in the knockout stages we should expect more drama and more excitement and I, for one, can't wait!