Tuesday, February 2, 2010

The Value of Ilya

The "new" NHL is a heartless, unwaivering beast.

Love him or hate him (let's face it, we all hate him), Gary Bettman achieved exactly what he intended to, and cultivated an ultra-competitive environment for NHL managers. Gone are the days of the big boys going out with the sole aim of signing the biggest free agents every off-season or carelessly trading away their draft-picks on deadline day with the optimistic hope that those good young players can just be acquired in 10 years time if need be. No, the post-lockout NHL GM must be a bold negotiator, brave risk-taker, astute talent scout and expert capologist.

So how realistic is Ilya Kovalchuk's agent, Jay Grossman, in the expectation that he can fetch his client the maximum allowed NHL contract?

There's no denying Kovalchuk's talent. He's one of the most dangerous forwards in the league and would make a valued contribution to any NHL team. But league maximum, which granted will probably decline moderately next season, is roughly $11.7m. If Kovy were to garner a contract like that, Jay Grossman could well be considered Danny Ocean of sports agents because he'd have pulled off the heist of the century and here's why:

Right now Grossman's client is inked in with a moderate cap hit of $6.4m/year. To put that into perspective, Red Wings' 2009 Hart-finallist and Selke-winner, Pavel Datsyuk accounts for $6.7m of Detroit's annual cap hit. While 4 years older than Kovalchuk at 30, Datsyuk despite his decline his drop in statistics this season, would almost unanimously be considered a bigger asset to any NHL club. At this stage in their careers, their offensive output is fairly similar but Datsyuk's defensive-prowess, as underscored by his two Selke trophies, is leaps and bounds ahead of the sluggish backchecker in Kovalchuk.

To place further perspective on the outrageousness that is Grossman's demands, current two-time reigning league MVP, and the largest cap hit in the NHL, Alex Ovechkin makes about $2m less than the current maximum.

Does Grossman, or anyone at all actually believe Kovalchuk could be more valuable to his team than Ovechkin?

The biggest problem Thrashers' GM Don Waddell has, is the KHL. A place where the aforementioned comparisons need not be relevant and the monetary restrictions don't exist. Kovalchuk and his agent are well aware this enormous pricetag will be paid in full, tax-free no less, across the pond in Europe. The fact of the matter is, any of these Eastern European stars can cash-in bigger with a move to the KHL, but for most the lure of the Stanley Cup keeps them in North America. However, the passion for the quest for the world's oldest trophy is not a universal one as evidenced most recently by Jiri Hudler.

So Kovalchuk and not his agent needs to make a decision. A choice between a realistic paycheque and a shot at Lord Stanley or the giant payday over in Europe. Any contending NHL team looking to go all the way would certainly be willing to offer a fair value salary for his services of anywhere between $6.5m to $8.5m (depending on the contract length), but fair value may not be enough.

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